U.S. markets have a relatively busy macroeconomic week ahead, with several reports that could influence expectations for interest rates, economic growth and the direction of the Nasdaq.
Tuesday brings a cluster of economic data, including July housing starts and building permits, industrial production and capacity utilization, and pending home sales. The industrial-production numbers will be particularly useful for gauging whether the manufacturing side of the economy is gaining or losing momentum.
Wednesday is the key event: the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its July meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET. The Fed kept its target rate at 3.50%–3.75%, so investors will be looking for clues about the debate inside the FOMC, particularly how policymakers are balancing persistent inflation against signs of a softer labor market. Any indication of growing support for a September rate cut could quickly affect Treasury yields, the dollar and growth stocks.
Thursday brings weekly initial jobless claims along with the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. Claims remain important because the labor market has become an increasingly significant part of the Fed’s decision-making equation.
Friday could provide another major market catalyst with the preliminary August S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs. These are among the first indicators of August economic activity and should offer clues about both growth and pricing pressures.
For traders, the hierarchy is fairly clear: FOMC minutes Wednesday, PMIs Friday, jobless claims Thursday, followed by today’s housing and industrial data. For technology and semiconductor stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, the combination of Fed expectations and evidence of continued economic growth could make this a consequential week.
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